Have a stock in mind? We can help you analyze it

Posted on April 8, 2013 by Andrei Voicu

Andrei Voicu24At Fragasso Financial Advisors we feel privileged to work with clients with a wide range of backgrounds and professional expertise in many fields.  Our clients sometimes ask us to look into investment ideas they come across based on their direct experiences.
Many  ideas may come from such inquiries and we are happy to do the research. We have made significant investments in research resources. We have tools available to analyze your ideas for their investment merits, as well as the proper fit within your overall financial picture.

The concept of investing in what you know has been popularized by legendary investors such as Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett. Investing in companies you understand well is a primary ingredient for investment success. However, it is not the only ingredient.

No investment should be made in a vacuum. You must have a well rounded understanding of how an investment may fit within the overall picture of your finances and within the proper context of your goals. Whether a stock is a Buy, Sell or Hold very much depends on your own individual circumstances.

As part of our services, we offer an evaluation of stocks you may hold or have an interest in. We perform the analysis by using the same rigorous criteria we employ in managing stock portfolios for our individuals and institutional clients.

Step 1- Valuation screen – establishes price targets and potential returns for all stocks within each sector. Price targets are computed through a combination of free cash flow discount models and price multiples.

Sample Stocks Target Prices_use

Step 2 – Fundamental Analysis Screen – seeks to avoid investing in stocks that are cheap because their fundamentals are deteriorating. The fundamental screens rank all companies within each sector by a weighted score of fundamental ratios to determine the relative quality of each stock.

Step 3 – Thorough Analytic Review – develop stock investment theme including, understanding of performance drivers and possible catalysts as they may apply to each industry.
Sample Stock Summary Report_use
Step 4 – Thesis challenge – to reduce the risk of one sided opinions, we seek out negative reports that may overturn a positive thesis.

AndreiChart3_040413

 Source: Morningstar Direct

We perform weekly valuation and fundamental screens for all individual stocks in our investment universe. Once an investment has been made, we monitor market stock prices versus the target price of every position, on a daily basis. If you would like us to analyze stock positions you own or simply want to know more about our process, please contact your financial advisor or complete this form and someone will contact you.

 

Investment Advice offered through Fragasso Financial Advisors, a registered investment advisor.  Sample screens do not represent investment recommendations and are for illustration purposes only. No allocation or investment strategy protects against loss.  Investing involves risk and loss of principal may occur.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Information has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable.

Andrei Voicu is Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at Fragasso Financial Advisors, a Pittsburgh-based investment and financial planning firm.  Due to industry regulations, comments are not permitted on this blog.  If you would like to contact the author, please email us at blog@fragassoadvisors.com.  Andrei can also be reached for comment at 412-227-3200.

 

Posted in Financial Advisor, Investing, stocks | Comments Off

Not All Tax-Havens are Created Equal

Posted on March 20, 2013 by Daniel Dingus

Daniel Dingus, AIF®
Director of Portfolio Management

If we thought things within the market were too quiet, along comes the small Mediterranean island nation of Cyprus to disrupt the relative tranquility. An initial plan by Cyprus lawmakers to tax deposits has added a wrinkle to the otherwise quiet Europe. Cyprus, by way of background, is a nation of approximately 800,000 and an economy less than $18 billion, or .2% of Europe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Currently, Cyprus is under siege from the rapidly deteriorating banking sector, which by some estimates is eight times its annual GDP. Unfortunately, Cyprus banks held a lot of Greek bonds and the write down on that debt created major losses, which is why Cyprus needs assistance from the European Union and possibly its bank depositors.

The vast majority of depository accounts are international individuals and businesses. With the promise of service, privacy, and low taxes, Cyprus became a little Switzerland for some. (Many of those international account owners are Russians, which explains the willingness of the Russian government to offer several billion dollars in loans in recent years.)

The initial plan by Cyprus lawmakers was to tax deposits at a certain rate. Deposits under 100,000 euros will be taxed at 6.75% and those above at 9.9%. This revenue source would provide a foundation to receive eurozone rescue loans. Lawmakers, recognizing that they have now created a run on Cyprus banks, have backtracked off the initial plan and are scrambling for a more amicable solution, especially for those small account holders. There are very few bondholders that can assist in the bailout or rescue plan, contrasting that with other nations such as Greece who did not have to take this precarious route for assistance from Europe. Ultimately the plan is dangerous, but Europe is looking for solutions that do not aid the more unscrupulous offshore depositors. Fortunately, the markets were relatively modest in their reaction to the news; and as such U.S. markets were only down slightly and international a bit more. The negative reaction has come on the heels of a strong start to 2013 market returns.

At Fragasso Financial Advisors, we recently reduced our international exposure for two reasons. One is that after robust international gains last year, it is generally prudent to reduce those sectors as they typically have a reversion to the mean. Secondly, Europe is not completely out of the woods and remains a fragile place for investors. While we have no clairvoyance as to what markets may do from day to day, we agree that rebalancing back to an agreed upon model and taking gains where appropriate can be a prudent mechanism for our valued clients.

Daniel Dingus is Director of Portfolio Management at Fragasso Financial Advisors, a Pittsburgh-based investment and financial planning firm.  Due to industry regulations, comments are not permitted on this blog.  If you would like to contact the author, please email us at blog@fragassoadvisors.com.  Dan can also be reached for comment at 412-227-3200.

Posted in Greece, international, tax, tax-haven | Comments Off

Has investing gone to the cats?

Posted on January 28, 2013 by Robert Fragasso
Bob Fragasso, CFP Chief Executive Officer

Robert Fragasso, CFP®
Chief Executive Officer

In a recent experiment conducted by the Observer, an English newspaper, three groups were asked to pick the most profitable stocks over the past year.  Pitted against each other were professional investment advisers, a group of students, and an orange tabby cat named Orlando.  Orlando chose his selections by moving a toy mouse across a grid allocated to different companies.  After the experiment was over the last “man” standing was Orlando.  He beat the closest group, the professional advisers, by almost £500.

So what does this say about choosing stocks and making investments in today’s market?  In a recent interview with Bankrate.com’s Sheyna Steiner, I discussed just that. “It illustrates the vagaries of statistical probabilities in individual selections.  If an individual says, ‘I’m going to analyze all of the earnings data, the company data, all of the management profiles and pick the best company,’ they still have a 50-50 chance of being right.”

As much as we all love our pets, we should probably leave the management of our hard-earned money to professionals.  As I told Steiner, I recommend picking an asset allocation model based on the client’s goals and risk tolerance. From there, investors can build their portfolio with passively managed investment choices representative of each sector of the asset allocation plan.  With that foundation, investors can go on to use actively managed investments to fill in holes.

At Fragasso Financial Advisors, we bracket passively managed investments in each of the sectors with an active manager. Those active managers will have a certain bent in the way they approach things that give them a business-like advantage.  Of course you can always ask your pets what they think, but you may end up with a portfolio over-weighted in kibble.

 

 

 

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Income Tax Rates Are Now Known

Posted on January 14, 2013 by Robert Fragasso

Income tax rates are now known. Everyone, regardless of where their bracket tops off, can benefit from action meant to lessen taxes.  Action that must be considered:

•    Contribute the maximum to a 401K or similar retirement plan.  This goes in before tax and thus saves taxes in the top bracket in which taxes are paid.  So a tax payer gets, in effect, an interest free loan from the federal government equal to that bracket to invest for themselves in their retirement plan.  Taxes will be paid later but in the meantime, those funds are invested on a tax-deferred basis.  This is meaningful whether the top bracket for an individual or family is 15%, 25% or 39.6%.  To do this, get a handle on income and expenses as to redirect wasted funds into productive retirement investments.  Do you really need that $4.50 latte today?  Pay yourself first and then enjoy the rest of your income.

•    Convert income oriented securities in a personal portfolio to a growth oriented.  Risk must be considered in this move.  But dividend and interest income is taxed at ordinary income rates as received and in the payer’s highest bracket (on top of the pile) while capital gains rates are lower and paid later.

•    Defer current income where possible until later when you may be taxed in a lower bracket.

•    Utilize tax free bonds where appropriate based on tax bracket.

•    When funding for a child’s or grandchild’s education, use 529 plans that allow the donor to control the investments and, if disbursed correctly and used for qualified expenses, the earnings grow tax-deferred and then are distributed tax free.  Again, all savings are in the donor’s top bracket.

Estate tax rates and exclusions:

•    A $5 million exemption is good and can be doubled if married.  Consult with your attorney, CPA and financial advisor about estate tax reduction strategies.  The law, like all such legislation in the past, will offer opportunities for planning and pitfalls for those who fail to plan.

This should not be considered specific advice for any individual.  In all such actions, use a financial and tax advisor to make sure the action is right for you.

 

Posted in 401k, 529s, college, Education, tax, Uncategorized | Comments Off

A Potentially “Taxing” New Year for Investors

Posted on October 16, 2012 by Karen Lapina

With the uncertainty surrounding the election, many wonder what will happen to health-care reform and their own health insurance if the makeup of the Senate and the presidency change after the dust settles on Nov. 6.

Certainly, it’s important to understand and evaluate the ramifications of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the long-term prospects of the individual mandate on your family’s medical care and costs.

Yet for investors, the ACA may also affect the health of their investments.

A 3.8 percent surtax goes into effect in January that will hit investment income for those married filers with adjusted gross incomes of $250,000 or more ($200,000 for single filers).  In addition to this frequently described “Success Tax,” investors will be looking at 0.9 percent increase in the Medicare tax on wages and self-employment income if they are at or above the same $250,000 threshold.  Only those earnings above this limit will be subject to the extra 0.9 percent.

It’s all part of the health-care bill that received its stamp of approval from the Supreme Court in June. It’s been part of the bill since day one but has not received much recognition as most media coverage centered around whether the bill would be overturned.

Defining taxable investment income

Investment income is defined by most experts as the following:  dividends, capital gains, interest (except for municipal bond interest which is exempt although it may be subject to the alternative minimum tax), rents/royalties, the taxable portion of annuity payments, income from the sale of a primary home above the current $250,000/$500,000 exclusion, the net gain from the sale of second home, and passive income from investments or real estate.

It would not include:  payouts from IRAs, pension payments, Social Security income, annuities that are part of a retirement plan, life insurance proceeds, municipal bond interest, veterans’ benefits and Schedule C or Subchapter S income. It is important to note that although these are not subject to the “Success Tax,” they may push your income up and above the $250,000 limit, which would therefore make your investment income subject to the additional levy.

What can you do?

In this situation, we advise clients that it is always better to err on the safe side and plan accordingly.
Therefore:

1. If you are debating whether to sell company or inherited stock that’s been accumulating over the years, now may be the time to do it. This holds true for options as well, as exercising non-qualified stock options normally results in ordinary income (as opposed to capital gains), which could be subject to the higher rates.
 
2. Consider switching to municipal bonds from their taxable counter parts. The tax-free yields offered by municipalities are often the better choice for those even in the mid-range tax brackets and will now be even more appealing as they retain their exempt status when the additional 3.8 percent kicks in.

3. Evaluate ROTH IRA conversion options.  The IRS lifted the income limits for conversion in 2010 so anyone can convert all or part of a traditional IRA or a company sponsored 401(k). Taxes on the amount converted are due for the same calendar year but no penalty applies for those under 59 ½ and the ROTH money (plus earnings) can be withdrawn tax free down the road. (There are nuances to converting, so consult your financial or tax advisor before doing so.)

4. Consider gifting away part of an estate. With gifting and estate tax rates also in danger of reverting back to pre-2001 levels, take advantage now to help ensure heirs are not hit with an unexpectedly large tax bill. This year, you can give away as much as $5,120,000 tax free. Next year, it drops to $1 million. Seeking the advice of a trusted estate attorney is of course recommended before making any final decisions. Fragasso Financial Advisors has outlined several strategies for you to consider to effectively pass your assets to your family in the most tax-efficient way. Click here to find out how to maximize your estate planning!

Please be sure to ask us or your CPA for more details on all potential 2013 tax changes and how to plan appropriately to help avoid them as much as possible.

After all, any headache you have on Jan. 1, 2013, should not be a result of an unexpected new tax burden!

Karen Lapina, AIF® 

Financial Advisor

Posted in Charity, Investing, Regulation, retirement, tax, Uncategorized | Comments Off

The Fiscal Cliff

Posted on October 8, 2012 by Andrei Voicu

Many of our clients have asked questions about the “Fiscal Cliff”, a combination of tax increases and spending cuts that is supposed to go into effect on January 1st, 2013. 

We believe it is important to keep our clients well informed on what is likely to happen next, as well as making any necessary adjustments to help protect their financial security. 

As part of the extensive qualitative investment research we perform on behalf of our clients, we carry out due diligence visits with the asset managers we employ or consider. 

I have just returned from such a due diligence visit from the headquarters of Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), in Newport Beach, CA. PIMCO is the second largest asset manager in the world, with investments worth $1.8 Trillion. 


Yours truly with Bill Gross, co-founder of Pacific Investment Management
and manager of the $270 Billion PIMCO Total Return fund,
during a visit at the PIMCO headquarters in Newport Beach, CA. 

At the meeting, a significant amount of time was spent on discussing PIMCO’s exhaustive research and analysis on the “Fiscal Cliff”. 

For your benefit, I will summarize the main points and conclusion of our discussion.   

If the US were to “go over” the “Fiscal Cliff”, the drag on the economy would be $719 billion, or 4.5 % of GDP, more than enough to trigger a new recession. 

However, such a scenario is highly unlikely. While disagreements on what to do clearly exist, Republicans and Democrats actually agree on many points. 

Here is what to expect on the fiscal cliff, item by item: 

The following items will be extended: 

  • The Bush tax cuts for taxpayers earning < $250K – worth $155 billion
  • AMT adjustments worth $130 billion
  • R&D and other tax credits – worth $85 billion
  • Medicare reimbursement fix – worth $15 billion

The following items will not be extended: 

  • The 2% payroll tax cut – worth $110 billion
  • Unemployment insurance – worth $35 billion

The following items are up for grabs: 

  • Bush tax cuts for taxpayers earning $250K – worth $55 billion
  • Affordable care act – worth $25 billion 
  • Sequester – defense spending cuts worth $55K
  • Sequester – non defense discretionary worth $38 billion
  • Sequester – mandatory (Medicare and other) – worth $16 billion

When everything is said and done, the fiscal “cliff” is likely to be downgraded to a fiscal “drag” of 1.5% of GDP. This would still allow for a probable 1% to 2% real GDP growth over the next 12 months. 

It is worth mentioning that the 1.5% of GDP fiscal drag estimate will not change much with the results of the election. 

As we stand today, the most likely election result is: 

  • an Obama presidency,
  • a Republican majority in the House
  • Either a narrow Democratic or narrow Republican majority in the Senate.

Polls are still within the margin of error, so these predictions are far from guaranteed. 

Presidential election 

There are 270 electoral votes needed to win. President Obama leads with 237 assumed safe electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 206 assumed safe electoral votes. 95 votes are still up for grabs. Romney needs 64 of the undecided votes, while Obama only needs 33. [1]

The Senate 

There are 33 seats up for reelection, 23 of them are currently Democratic. Republicans need to pick up only 4 seats to win a simple majority. 

The House of Representatives 

All seats are up for re-election. Republicans hold 242 seats vs. 193 for Democrats. Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to win a majority in the house, which appears unlikely. 

Portfolio Positioning  

Perhaps surprising to some, the result of the election does not seem to materially impact the fiscal drag we should expect. Depending on who will win in November, the fiscal drag may range from $245 billion to $265 billion (1.5% to 1.7% of GDP).[2]

We believe equity markets have already priced in the most likely scenarios behind the “Fiscal Cliff”. 

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has clearly telegraphed its intention to see higher stock prices. As a result, we do not believe it is warranted to reduce allocations to stocks because of the upcoming “Fiscal Cliff”. 

We recommend that clients maintain their asset allocation in line with their longer term objectives and tolerance for risk.  

Andrei Voicu, CFP® 

Chief Investment Officer 

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.    

[1] Source: Real Clear Politics, Guggenheim Research, various polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC News, CNN, IBD), 

[2] Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Congressional Research Services, Peterson Institute for International Economics and PIMCO

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What Role Should Financial Advisors Play in Choosing a College and Career?

Posted on October 1, 2012 by Robert Fragasso

In an interview for the Post-Gazette last fall, I discussed with reporter Tim Grant how schools aren’t doing enough to teach children about basic financial literacy.

Tim and I recently spoke again for an article about the role financial advisors should have in talking about college planning with their clients. As is the case with the lack of financial literacy being taught in schools, it also seems not nearly enough is being done to advise prospective college students on where to go, what to major in and – most importantly – what career prospects await them in the field of study they choose.

A disheartening piece on the front page of the Aug. 9 Wall Street Journal sums up the state of affairs in this country related to proper planning and guidance for college:

“Rising college costs and a sagging economy are taking the biggest toll on a surprising group: upper-middle-income families . . . Households with annual incomes of $94,535 to $205,335 saw the biggest jump in the percentage with student-loan debt from 2007 to 2010. . . The surge is leading many such families to look closer at cost and value when choosing colleges.”

It’s unfortunate we’ve gotten to this point, especially because proper planning could have helped prevent this situation. Some estimates place student-loan debt at $1 trillion, and much of it is related to poor financial planning.

If you’ve saved your money up front, pre-tax, then by all means you are free to choose whatever career path you’d like. (Yet I would debate the merits of spending nearly $200,000 on a degree that’s unlikely to lead to a job after graduation).

However, if you are a middle class to upper-middle class family, the cost of a four-year education for just one child could cost more than your home. With employment scarce in a challenging economic environment, taking a realistic look at job prospects for a course of study in comparison to student loan debt is essential. With the high cost of post-secondary education, it’s a must to accurately consider the cost-benefit of choosing a college and career.

More specifically, should you consider a trade or vocational school? Skilled labor in the manufacturing sector is in great demand and pays nearly $80,000 per year on average, according to some studies.

Should you cut your educational expenses nearly in half by choosing a community college and later transferring into a four-year school? Many community college professors have full-time jobs in their fields and can provide real-world examples of what you’ll face in a particular line of work.

Some argue that common sense should prevail and people shouldn’t need a financial advisor to plan for college. However, as the WSJ article points out, that isn’t the reality we live in today. Even well-to-do families are struggling with this type of planning. With so many people so far in debt, over paying for college, common sense doesn’t seem to be enough.

I believe it’s the advisor’s responsibility to help clients plan and prepare for their children’s educations. Here at Fragasso, we can effectively evaluate whether your family’s college plans make economic sense.

Our team of advisors – many of whom hold the Certified Financial Planner® certification – adheres to a specific code of ethics that includes the responsibility to provide this type of guidance.

Many general financial advisors sell college-savings products, such as 529 plans. However, they don’t provide a full spectrum of ideas and potential strategies to help you tailor your children’s educational goals to your specific financial situation. 

We do.

A college education should be within everyone’s reach. We can help make it a practical reality.

Posted in 2012, 529s, Advisor, college, Education, Financial Advisor, Uncategorized | Comments Off

Fragasso Looking to Buy Practices

Posted on June 19, 2012 by Loriann Ostermueller

We are looking to buy investment practices as well as to attract established investment advisors with an already-existing book of business to our firm.  You may be in touch with people in either or both of those categories who may have an interest in talking with me.

Investment practices of any sort in our industry would be potential candidates for our purchase consideration.  By contrast, the acquisition of established advisors will be more selective.  The ideal candidate for us would be an advisor who is uncomfortable in the current affiliation, perhaps because of proprietary product pressure as an example, and who wishes to represent his or her clients with fee-based and unbiased investment management.  That advisor must be already established with a sustainable clientele and who wishes to transition them to our caliber of investment management and financial planning.

Please contact us at 412-227-3200 if you have an interest in this opportunity.

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Teaching financial literacy for life and throughout your lifetime

Posted on June 14, 2012 by Ray Amelio

On May 2, Bob Fragasso, Debbie Graver, Andrei Voicu and Dan Dingus began teaching a six-week course for the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute program at Carnegie Mellon University titled “Can I Afford to Retire in this Rapidly Changing Global Environment?”

The Osher Institute describes itself as a gathering of people eager to extend education in their senior years. Any adult in the Pittsburgh area can sign up.

The topics we discuss in this class are exactly the types of important discussions we have with our clients on a daily basis. Like the students we instruct, our investors have legitimate concerns about whether they have enough money to retire comfortably.

That’s why it’s personal, not just business, when it comes to diligently managing and caring for the retirement future of our clients. It’s no understatement to say that their physical, mental and emotional well being is at stake with these decisions. We take that responsibility seriously and take on the duties of acting as their fiduciary with vigor.

Our investment in education, so to speak, doesn’t end with clients or soon-to-be retirees either.

In an interview for the Post-Gazette last fall, Bob Fragasso spoke at length with reporter Tim Grant about how schools aren’t doing enough to teach children about what I’d call basic financial literacy.

Fragasso Financial Advisors sponsors an elective course at Urban Pathways Charter School downtown, educating high school students about personal finance. If 60-year-old, otherwise well-educated adults have a need for this type of instruction, it’s obvious we need to be reaching out to teenagers by the time they are 16 or younger.

Most high school students across the country can receive their diplomas without taking a single course on basic financial principles. As Tim so astutely pointed out, less than 3 percent of Pittsburgh area high school students have access to a class on financial education, in spite of the fact that nearly all of us are increasingly being called upon by our employers to fund our own retirement.

While it’s never too late to learn about proper personal financial management, I’ve long felt Americans are hamstrung almost from the beginning of their educational experiences when it comes to learning about money management. It’s essential we do more to help people at all stages of their lives learn how to more properly evaluate their finances.

If you want to learn more about what it takes to affordably retire and how Fragasso Financial Advisors can help, we’re happy to provide that education. We embrace that opportunity for our clients and the entire Pittsburgh community.

Ray Amelio is chief marketing officer at Fragasso Financial Advisors, a Pittsburgh-based investment and financial planning firm.  Due to industry regulations, comments are not permitted on this blog.  If you would like to contact the author, please email us at blog@fragassoadvisors.com.  Bob can also be reached for comment at 412-227-3200.

Posted in Financial Education, Fragasso staff | Comments Off

The City of Pittsburgh honors one of our own

Posted on June 6, 2012 by Robert Fragasso

Commitment, responsibility and leadership are more than just words or slogans to our people, especially to my good friend and our Chief Marketing Officer, Ray Amelio.

Ray was recognized by Mayor Luke Ravenstahl’s office with the Citizen Service Award on May 17th, which honors individuals and organizations that demonstrate a strong commitment to addressing local challenges and improving the quality of life in the City of Pittsburgh. Ray received a special City of Pittsburgh Proclamation, a personal letter of thanks from Mayor Ravenstahl, and May 11, 2012 was designated “Ray Amelio Day” in the city.

Ray contributes his time to so many charitable organizations and efforts that it would be hard to list them all in this space. But one in particular gained attention from the mayor’s office, which led to this award. Ray has been associated with the Veterans Leadership Program of Western Pennsylvania for the past 24 years and served as co-chair on the organization’s board of directors in 2011. He served as Board Chair for four years (1994 to 1998).  This program helps provide essential support services to military veterans, service members and their families.

Anyone who knows Ray knows how near and dear this effort is to his heart. A Vietnam veteran, Ray has helped shepherd the Veteran’s Leadership Program from its infancy 30 years ago into an organization that provided essential services to nearly 5,000 of our region’s more than 300,000 veterans.  To learn more about Veteran’s Leadership Program and how you can help, click here.

With thousands more returning from Iraq and Afghanistan every day, the need to support these heroes hasn’t diminished in importance. Thanks to the dedication of Ray and his colleagues, we know those returning to Western Pennsylvania will be in good hands.

Congratulations Ray.  We humbly salute you.

I encourage you to share stories of the people making a difference in your community each day. They inspire us to fight the good fight and continue giving back to the city and country that have given us so much.

Robert Fragasso, CFP®, is chairman and chief executive officer at Fragasso Financial Advisors, a Pittsburgh-based investment and financial planning firm.  Due to industry regulations, comments are not permitted on this blog.  If you would like to contact the author, please email us at blog@fragassoadvisors.com.  Bob can also be reached for comment at 412-227-3200.

Posted in awards, Fragasso staff | Comments Off